Conditional Collaborative Filtering Process for Top-K Recommender System (Student Abstract)

Conditional neural process (CNP) has been extensively applied into data analyzing tasks due to its excellent ability to make accurate predictions for incomplete data points. However, in literature there are only few works that studied the CNPin recommendation systems. In this work, we propose CCFP, which is a collaborative filtering method that differs from other CF models by incorporating CNP into encoder-decoder architecture. By analyzing the complete user-item interaction data, our model fits a global representation that can better rep-resenting the features of users and items. CCFP can significantly improve the recommendation performance compared to baselines by predicting items for the target users with their incomplete observation data

Fine-Grained Urban Flow Inference via Normalizing Flow (Student Abstract)

Fine-grained urban flow inference (FUFI) aims to infer the coarse-grained (CG) urban flow map to the corresponding fine-grained (FG) one, which plays an important role in efficient traffic monitoring and management in smart cities. In FUFI, the CG map can be obtained with only a small number of monitoring devices, greatly reducing the overhead of deploying devices and the costs of maintenance, labor, and electricity. Existing FUFI methods are mainly based on techniques from image super-resolution (SR) models, which cannot fully consider the influence of external factors and face the ill-posed problem in SR tasks. In this paper, we propose UFI-Flow, a novel approach for addressing the FUFI problem by learning the conditional distributions of CG and FG map pairs. Given the CG map and the latent variables, the corresponding FG map is inferred by invertible transformations. In addition, an augmented distribution fusion mechanism is further proposed to constrain the urban flow distribution within the influence of external factors. We provide a new large-scale real-world FUFI dataset and show that UFI-Flow significantly outperforms the strong baselines

Linking Transformer to Hawkes Process for Information Cascade Prediction (Student Abstract)

Information cascade is typically formalized as a process of (simplified) discrete sequence of events, and recent approaches have tackled its prediction via variants of recurrent neural networks. However, the information diffusion process is essentially an evolving directed acyclic graph (DAG) in the continuous-time domain. In this paper, we propose a transformer enhanced Hawkes process (Hawkesformer), which links the hierarchical attention mechanism with Hawkes process to model the arrival stream of discrete events continuously. A two-level attention architecture is used to parameterize the intensity function of Hawkesformer, which captures the long-term dependencies between nodes in graph and better embeds the cascade evolution rate for modeling short-term outbreaks. Experimental results demonstrate the significant improvements of Hawkesformer over the state-of-the-art

A Probabilistic Graph Diffusion Model for Source Localization (Student Abstract)

Source localization, as a reverse problem of graph diffusion, is important for many applications such as rumor tracking, detecting computer viruses, and finding epidemic spreaders. However, it is still under-explored due to the inherent uncertainty of the diffusion process: after a long period of propagation, the same diffusion process may start with diverse sources. Most existing solutions utilize deterministic models and therefore cannot describe the diffusion uncertainty of sources. Moreover, current probabilistic approaches are hard to conduct smooth transformations with variational inference. To overcome the limitations, we propose a probabilistic framework using continuous normalizing flows with invertible transformations and graph neural networks to explicitly model the uncertainty of the diffusion source. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model over strong baselines

CasODE: Modeling Irregular Information Cascade via Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Student Abstract)

Predicting information cascade popularity is a fundamental problem for understanding the nature of information propagation on social media. However, existing works fail to capture an essential aspect of information propagation: the temporal irregularity of cascade event -- i.e., users' re-tweetings at random and non-periodic time instants. In this work, we present a novel framework CasODE for information cascade prediction with neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). CasODE generalizes the discrete state transitions in RNNs to continuous-time dynamics for modeling the irregular-sampled events in information cascades. Experimental evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate the advantages of the CasODE over baseline approaches

PrEF: Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting via Copula-Augmented State Space Model

Electricity forecasting has important implications for the key decisions in modern electricity systems, ranging from power generation, transmission, distribution and so on. In the literature, traditional statistic approaches, machine-learning methods and deep learning (e.g., recurrent neural network) based models are utilized to model the trends and patterns in electricity time-series data. However, they are restricted either by their deterministic forms or by independence in probabilistic assumptions -- thereby neglecting the uncertainty or significant correlations between distributions of electricity data. Ignoring these, in turn, may yield error accumulation, especially when relying on historical data and aiming at multi-step prediction. To overcome these, we propose a novel method named Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting (PrEF) by proposing a non-linear neural state space model (SSM) and incorporating copula-augmented mechanism into that, which can learn uncertainty-dependencies knowledge and understand interactive relationships between various factors from large-scale electricity time-series data. Our method distinguishes itself from existing models by its traceable inference procedure and its capability of providing high-quality probabilistic distribution predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world electricity datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms the alternatives

Learning spatio-temporal manifold representation for probabilistic land deformation prediction

Landslides refer to occurrences of massive ground movements due to geological (and meteorological) factors, and can have disastrous impacts on property, economy, and even lead to the loss of life. The advances in remote sensing provide accurate and continuous terrain monitoring, enabling the study and analysis of land deformation which, in turn, can be used for land deformation prediction. Prior studies either rely on pre-defined factors and patterns or model static land observations without considering the subtle interactions between different point locations and the dynamic changes of the surface conditions, causing the prediction model to be less generalized and unable to capture the temporal deformation characteristics. To address these issues, we present DyLand, a dynamic manifold learning framework that models the dynamic structures of the terrain surface. We contribute to the land deformation prediction literature in four directions. First, DyLand learns the spatial connections of InSAR measurements and estimates the conditional distributions on a dynamic terrain manifold with a novel normalizing flow-based method. Second, instead of modeling the stable terrains, we incorporate surface permutations and capture the innate dynamics of the land surface while allowing for tractable likelihood estimations on the manifold. Third, we formulate the spatio-temporal learning of land deformations as a dynamic system and unify the learning of spatial embeddings and surface deformation. At last, extensive experiments on curated real-world InSAR datasets (land slopes prone to landslides) show that DyLand outperforms existing benchmark models.</p